"It is important to remember, though, that this is a temporary disruption to economic activity, not a new long-run trajectory for the economy. We anticipate a period of above-normal GDP growth after the worst of the virus-related disruptions have passed, as the economy returns to a normal level of economic activity, catch-up production to restore depleted inventories occurs, and even-lower interest rates stimulate asset prices. We are currently assuming that the recovery phase will begin in the second half of this year, although we will update that timing as we learn more about how the virus is playing out."