REGIONAL POPULATION TRENDS TO AFFECT FRANCHISE GROWTH
The latest figures from Statistics New Zealand reveal population trends for individual regions; Auckland continues to get bigger.
As franchisors come to grips with what changing demographics mean for their growth and recruitment strategies (see previous story), Statistics New Zealand has released further figures giving region-by-region breakdowns of expected population changes. These sub-national population projections give an indication of the future population of New Zealand's 16 regional council areas (regions) and 67 territorial authority areas. The low, medium, and high projections all indicate:
- The population growth rate will slow in all areas between 2011 and 2031.
- All areas will be home to more people aged 65+ in 2031.
- Deaths will increase relative to births in all areas, as the population ages.
The medium projection indicates:
- All regions will have more people in 2031 than in 2006, although 17 territorial authority areas will have less.
- Deaths will outnumber births in one-quarter of territorial authority areas by 2031.
- 50 territorial authority areas will have fewer children in 2031 than in 2011.
- Three-fifths of New Zealand's population growth between 2011 and 2031 will be in Auckland.
- Auckland's population will reach almost 2 million of New Zealand's 5.2 million people by 2031. Of every 100 people in New Zealand, 38 will be living in Auckland in 2031 compared with 34 in 2011
- Natural increase (births minus deaths) is projected to account for two-thirds of Auckland's growth, and net migration (arrivals minus departures) the remaining one third. Of New Zealand's 16 regions, only Auckland will have more births in 2027–31 than in 2007–11.
- Of New Zealand's 67 territorial authority areas, 44 are projected to have more people in 2031 than in 2011. However, population growth rates will slow over the projection period for all areas because of the contrasting trends between births and deaths.
- The fastest growth between 2011 and 2031 is expected in Selwyn and Queenstown-Lakes districts (up an average of 1.9 percent a year).
- Despite an estimated population loss of 8,900 in the year ended June 2011, Christchurch city is projected to increase by an average of 1,500 a year during 2012 -16 and 2,500 a year during 2017–31.
According to Chief Statistician Geoff Bascand, ‘These projections are not predictions, but an indication of the size and composition of the future population.’
Statistics NZ produces low, medium, and high growth projections for every local area every two–three years to assist planning by communities, local councils, and government.
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